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1
14 forecasters
2
1 comment
14 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?

Resolved:No
14 forecasters
if yes
if no

New PHEIC in 2024?

27%
27%
Resolved:Annulled

New PHEIC in 2024?

9%
9%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes27.3%
if No(Yes)
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2 comments96 forecasters

Will Bird Flu be declared a PHEIC before 2030?

51%chance
1 comment18 forecasters

H5N1 pandemic before 2030

29%chance
12 comments25 forecasters

Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

5%chance
2 comments21 forecasters

WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030

18%chance
1 comment9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

50%chance
2 comments17 forecasters

When 500k H5Nx Influenza Cases?

Current estimate
Jun 2032
18 comments103 forecasters

Hantavirus PHEIC before 2027?

1%chance
10 comments57 forecasters

5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

5%chance