New PHEIC in 2024?

condition

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?

Resolved:No

14 forecasters

if yes

if no

New PHEIC in 2024?

27%

Resolved:Annulled

New PHEIC in 2024?

Resolved:Yes

1 1 comment

14 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?	New PHEIC in 2024?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 9%

What was the final result? Yes

Community Peer Score

38.7

Community Baseline Score

-122.3

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2024

H9N2 Bird Flu Virus Could Pose Human Pandemic Risk, Experts Warn

Scientific American•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

1% chance

226

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40% chance

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2% chance

182

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2024

H9N2 Bird Flu Virus Could Pose Human Pandemic Risk, Experts Warn

Scientific American•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

1% chance

226

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40% chance

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2% chance

182