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28 forecasters

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?

2%chance
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Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:Jun 28, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2024
Economy & Business
Artificial Intelligence
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Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

0.5% chance
105

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

2030
10%
2026
2%
2023
No
1 other
43 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

37.4%
(23.6 - 53.6)
37.4%
(23.6 - 53.6)
26 forecasters
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