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1
21 forecasters
2
1 comment
21 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders?

Resolved:No
21 forecasters
if yes
if no

Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

50%
50%
Resolved:Annulled

Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

75%
75%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes49.9%
if No(Yes)
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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15 comments832 forecasters

Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?

30%chance
9 comments38 forecasters

Netanyahu's situation in 2032?

Prime Minister of Israel3.8%
Non-PM political position19.6%
Imprisoned18%
Other58.6%
1 comment21 forecasters

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?

50%chance
3 comments20 forecasters

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?

75%chance
9 comments62 forecasters

Israel guilty in ICJ genocide case before 2027?

10%chance
2 comments27 forecasters

Who will be the Israeli Prime Minister following the election for the 26th Knesset?

Benjamin Netanyahu29.2%
Naftali Bennett45.5%
Yair Lapid6.8%
Other14.6%
2 others
3 comments33 forecasters

Israel take Gaza City before 2029?

24%chance
16 comments33 forecasters

Will ICJ find Israel committed genocide?

22%chance