• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
2
6 forecasters
4
2 comments
6 forecasters
Elections
condition

Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?

Resolved:Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no

2024 US Presidential Election Winner?

60%
60%
Resolved:Yes

2024 US Presidential Election Winner?

80%
80%
Resolved:Annulled
if Yes(Yes)
if No80%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
207 comments818 forecasters

Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

2%chance
16 comments20 forecasters

Trump confinement date

Current estimate
01 Sep 2029
75 comments183 forecasters

Trump in power beyond 2028?

2.5%chance
13 comments103 forecasters

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

20%chance
35 comments139 forecasters

Trump wins Peace Prize before 2029?

0.5%chance
5 comments36 forecasters

Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?

25%chance
7 comments43 forecasters

Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?

99.9%chance
15 comments247 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance46%
Ron DeSantis4.4%
Marco Rubio19.3%
Other24.7%
4 others