500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

condition

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?

Resolved:No

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

Resolved:No

0 comments

20 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?	500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 0.1%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

0.2

Community Baseline Score

99.4

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 8, 2025

H9N2 Bird Flu Virus Could Pose Human Pandemic Risk, Experts Warn

Scientific American•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Jun 2032

(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)

Jun 2032

(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)

16 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

1% chance

111

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2% chance

225

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 8, 2025

H9N2 Bird Flu Virus Could Pose Human Pandemic Risk, Experts Warn

Scientific American•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Jun 2032

(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)

Jun 2032

(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)

16 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

1% chance

111

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2% chance

225