500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

conditional

condition

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?

Resolved:No

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

Resolved:No

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Make a Prediction

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?	500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 0.1%

What was the final result? No

Community Baseline Score

99.4

Community Peer Score

0.2

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 1, 2025

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Mar 2036

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 1, 2025

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Mar 2036

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%