Question

Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?

Resolved:No

21 comments21

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

71.8

Community Peer Score

10.4

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

May 14, 2024

Closes:

Sep 28, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 28, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 17, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

May 14, 2024

Closes:

Sep 28, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 28, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 17, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%