🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

3
11
Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction189k (112k - 297k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>400k
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
111.9k
189.3k
296.8k
14.0%
Authors:
RyanBeckmaxslangenkamp
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Health & Pandemics
Economy & Business
Natural Sciences
Molecular biology
Genetics
Synthetic biology
Biochemistry
Biotechnology
Oligonucleotide synthesis
Artificial gene synthesis
DNA synthesis

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