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Naturally-originating pandemic before 2026


Other questions in this series have asked separately about influenza and H5N1, and the emergence of new mosquito-borne, airborne, and blood-borne diseases.

Those questions all concern disease that originate naturally, i.e. without any accidental or deliberate human modification and release (which is the subject of separate questions). Here we ask the general question:

Will there be "naturally spawned" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025?

Infection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source; if not entirely clear, we will assume "naturally spawned" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2026.

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