46 comments
238 forecasters
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?
10%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closed:Jan 1, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jun 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?
9% chance
77
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
1% chance
20
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
65% chance
53