Question

Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?

Resolved:No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters101

Community Prediction

15%

(10% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

42.4

Community Peer Score

16.7

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jun 15, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 30, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 16, 2016

Pandemic Series (2018)

Health & Pandemics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Sep 2045

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%