11 comments
18 forecasters
When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?
Current estimate
Jul 2041
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 9, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 12, 2024
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
Aug 2032
(24 Apr 2029 - Jun 2038)
Aug 2032
(24 Apr 2029 - Jun 2038)
53 forecasters
When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?
30 Mar 2027
(28 Apr 2025 - 07 Jan 2030)
30 Mar 2027
(28 Apr 2025 - 07 Jan 2030)
219 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
45% chance
72