Question
Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters91
Community Prediction
29%
(20% - 44%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
30.6
Community Baseline Score
24.2
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2017
Resolves:Jan 11, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23%
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
25%
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2017
Resolves:Jan 11, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23%
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
25%
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045