12 comments
91 forecasters
Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?
29%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 29% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 15, 2017
Resolved:Jan 11, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 16, 2016
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
23% chance
225
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
25% chance
160
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
15 forecasters