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Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?
Although the intended target of biological weapons of war or terror is generally human, there is a history of development of bioweapons against agricultural crops or livestock going back up to a century. See This comprehensive article. As a particularly scary example, part of the Soviet Union's extensive bioweapons program was a secret division code-named "ecology" that targeted livestock by developing variants of foot-and-mouth, rinderpest, swine fever, and psittacosis to infect cows, pigs, and chickens.
The scale and effect of such attacks could easily increase in the future. As for human pathogens, agricultural or livestock-oriented pathogens might be improved by selective "breeding" or by genetic engineering (and without quite as much danger to the human scientists!) Moreover, many of todays crops and livestock are monocultures or clones with very little genetic diversity, raising the concern that a single pathogen could spread unchecked and potentially destroy an entire industry. (See for example the past and future of the banana.) Finally, modern factory farming and high-intensity agriculture make an ideal environment for a quickly spreading pathogen.
With this in mind:
For positive resolution, the report must take place after question opening time, and the release must take place at a time reasonable inferred to be not earlier than one year prior to opening time.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.