Question

What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?

Resolved:4.9

37 comments37

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction

4.84

(4.7 - 5)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<1.5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15
community	0.3%	4.701	4.837	4.999	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1.5	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	4.701	—
median	4.837	—
upper 75%	4.999	—
Upper bound
>15	0.3%	—

What was the final result?4.9

Community Baseline Score

65.8

Community Peer Score

25.8

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jun 5, 2024

Closes:

Sep 28, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 5, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 8, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years?

142