First off-Earth human birth.

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Question

Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.

In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession) was considered an important milestone.

In that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?

The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an O'Neill cylinder) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.

A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.

'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. Extracorporeal pregnancies, including but not limited to arrangements like this are specifically excluded.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site