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Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?

2019 is a pivotal year for the UK, as it is currently scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March. However, the process has become mired in difficulty and embattled Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May looks set to lose a key vote on her Brexit deal within days.

UK opposition Parliament members have been told to prepare for a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May's government, as they see no way forward for her Brexit deal, according to a Guardian report on 12 January 2019.

This question asks: Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 1 January 2020?

This question will resolve positive if, at some point no later than 23:59 GMT on 31 December 2019, the United Kingdom has a Prime Minister who is not a member of the Conservative Party.

It will resolve negative if on 1 January 2020 the UK's Prime Minister is a member of the Conservative Party, and if between now and then the UK has not had a Prime Minister who isn't.

It will resolve ambiguous in other cases.

Notes on the resolution conditions: for positive resolution the PM needn't be Jeremy Corbyn, nor need it be a member of the Labour Party. The question will even resolve positive if Theresa May remains in power but leaves the Conservative Party. For negative resolution the PM needn't still be Theresa May, and there can be PM-less gaps if e.g. there is a general election between now and 1 January 2020.


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