38 forecasters

Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?

95%chance

95%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 20, 2024

Closes:

Jul 4, 2024

Resolved:

Jul 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 21, 2024

2024 Leaderboard

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Guardian•Sep 14, 2025

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Guardian•Sep 9, 2025

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Spectator (UK)•Sep 8, 2025

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