MetaculusM

conditional

2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?

if yes

if no

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?

Make a Prediction

2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?	Synthetic protein fibers 10% of production?
if yes	My Prediction: - (slider)
if no	My Prediction: - (slider)

PDF

CDF

	<Jan 2030	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2075
community	0.3%	Jan 2033	Oct 2033	Sep 2034	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<189345600000%	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Jan 2033	—
median	Oct 2033	—
upper 75%	Sep 2034	—
Upper bound
>331352640000%	0.1%	—

PDF

CDF

	<Jan 2030	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2075
community	0.3%	Jan 2033	Oct 2033	Sep 2034	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<189345600000%	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Jan 2033	—
median	Oct 2033	—
upper 75%	Sep 2034	—
Upper bound
>331352640000%	0.1%	—

Forecast Timeline

if No

if Yes

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2074

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2075

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 3, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2074

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2075

Synthetic Biology at Scale

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business