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French Yellow-Vest Protestors Decline


The Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) are french protesters of the Macron government policies.

They notably organised a series of grassroots protests all over France, every weekend for the last 9 weeks. The first one, on Saturday November 2018, gathered more than 285,000 people (i.e. ~0.4% of the population). Participation reached a low point around Christmas (~35,000), but is picking up again (~84,000 on 2019-01-12).

The question is then: will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters decline?

Resolves positively if no Yellow-Vests-affiliated protest gathers more than 150,000 people on any single day before (but not including) April 1st 2019. It resolves negatively if any such protest occurs. Resolution shall be by credible media source reporting Ministry of the Interior estimates for protesters all over France. The question resolves positively on April 1st 2019 or retroactively the day before any protest triggering negative resolution, whichever comes first.

Meta :

  • resolution date is chosen ~20 weeks after the movement's inception, versus ~10 weeks as of question writing
  • the 150,000 number is chosen semi-arbitrarily around the pre-Christmas level
  • the slightly awkward resolution criterion is because I threw a coin for the positive-resolution direction after choosing the metric
Politics – European

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