Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will the Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) movement in France wax or wane?
They notably organised a series of grassroots protests all over France, every weekend for the last 9 weeks. The first one, on Saturday November 2018, gathered more than 285,000 people (i.e. ~0.4% of the population). Participation reached a low point around Christmas (~35,000), but is picking up again (~84,000 on 2019-01-12).
The question is then: will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters decline?
Resolves positively if no Yellow-Vests-affiliated protest gathers more than 150,000 people on any single day before (but not including) April 1st 2019. It resolves negatively if any such protest occurs. Resolution shall be by credible media source reporting Ministry of the Interior estimates for protesters all over France. The question resolves positively on April 1st 2019 or retroactively the day before any protest triggering negative resolution, whichever comes first.
- resolution date is chosen ~20 weeks after the movement's inception, versus ~10 weeks as of question writing
- the 150,000 number is chosen semi-arbitrarily around the pre-Christmas level
- the slightly awkward resolution criterion is because I threw a coin for the positive-resolution direction after choosing the metric
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.