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41
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68 forecasters
Computing and Math
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Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?
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No
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24 comments
98 forecasters
Greatest Computation Used in AI Training
3 comments
8 forecasters
FLOP usage for training transformative AI
Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
1 comment
8 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
4 comments
2 forecasters
Exfiltration of Compute-Intensive AI Models
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
99.4%
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
87.7%
Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28
77.5%
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
72.8%
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
result:
No
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
13 comments
26 forecasters
Most Expensive AI Training Run by Year
0 comments
9 forecasters
Chinese Org Trains on > 1500-TFLOP GPUs
Current estimate
24 Mar 2026