Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?

Resolved:No

41 comments41

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction

70%

(68% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

19.2

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 17, 2019

Closes:

Mar 15, 2019

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2019

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2019 Leaderboard

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5×10²⁶

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28