If a wall gets funded as a result of the current shutdown, how much funding will that be?

The current US federal government shutdown is centered on immigration. Specifically, President Donald Trump insists on $5.7 billion for a wall along the US-Mexico border. On January 12 it became the (longest shutdown in US history)[https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-….]

Congressional Democrats refuse to allow such a budget to make it to the president's desk. It seems possible a compromise of some amount of wall funding short of $5.7 billion could allow the shutdown to end.

If so, what will that amount be?

Funding will count as "wall funding" if it is acknowledged as such by at least three of the following news sources: BBC, CBC, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Associated Press, Reuters.

Question resolves ambiguous if there is no funding in a government-opening agreement fitting this description, and this determination is made when there is a full (>90% of personnel) government opening (rather than say an interim agreement opening a small part.) Predictions are in billions of USD.

Categories: Politics – US

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word