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4 forecasters
On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?
Current estimate
0.556%
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2024
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
48.5% chance
35
Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
1% chance
293
Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?
5% chance
33