Question

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters256

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 6.4%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Japanese anti-nuclear weapons group Nihon Hidankyo

USA Today•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Japanese anti-nuclear weapons group Nihon Hidankyo

USA Today•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%