exploring critical insights mapping intelligent forecasts assembling predictive insights aggregating quantitative wisdom mapping precise contingencies mapping the future predicting accurate wisdom forecasting accurate predictions crowdsourcing critical insights calculating predictive insights aggregating definitive contingencies assembling quantitative wisdom aggregating contingent estimations assembling contingent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?

Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.

Since its first edition in 2013, the SHED has included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.

In 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.

This question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted for the year 2020, what percentage of Americans will say that they could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money?

In the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.

In the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.