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Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?
It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 400 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 402.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.
In order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:Will this outbreak claim more than 1000 lives before it is declared over by the WHO?
Note that this question is asked in the inverse way as the previous one: will 1000 people die, rather than will less than 1000 people die.
Resolution is by credible media report, or by the Congolese Government: Ministère de la Santé de la République Démocratique du Congo. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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