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Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?

A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.

Since 2014, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" with "Leave," and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with "Remain." The "Leave" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.

However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with 62% of Scottish voters opting for "Remain." (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) You can see a map of the results here.

The fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future.

This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?

For this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.

If, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.

In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.

In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.

In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.

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