generating probable understanding assembling precise futures delivering quantitative wisdom composing contingent predictions modeling definitive predictions mapping the future delivering definitive predictions formulating probable wisdom composing predictive understanding forecasting probable understanding computing predictive wisdom formulating contingent wisdom exploring quantitative insights computing precise predictions


Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit?

After getting some interesting results from our first "Metaknowledge" experiment, we're running another, this time on Brexit.

As briefly summarized by the by the BBC here, on June 23 there will be a referendum in the UK as to whether the UK will remain part of the EU.

The referendum will be decided by a straight majority vote of UK voters, and the results announced at some point after polls close on the 23rd.

In this "Part A" of the metaknowledge experiment, we ask in the standard way:

With what probability will the UK vote to leave the EU (i.e. "yes" on Brexit)?

In part B we ask you to predict what other predictors are currently predicting; you're encouraged to answer both to make the experiment more illuminating.

Make a predictionUpdate your predictionFinal prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Thanks for predicting!

Since you're not signed in, your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats