computing intelligent insights crowdsourcing contingent contingencies predicting calibrated futures calculating probable insights formulating precise insights mapping the future aggregating intelligent contingencies aggregating intelligent insights computing critical understanding aggregating definitive wisdom formulating quantitative estimations composing definitive estimations crowdsourcing predictive contingencies exploring accurate insights


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?

On 18 January 2019, the White House announced that United States President Donald Trump would meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un near the end of February.

This question asks: Will Trump meet Kim before 01 April 2019?

For a positive resolution, the two men must be physically present (i.e. not a meeting by teleconference) in the same room or location and visible to one another.

If this does not happen before 01 April 2019 for any reason (including delay, cancellation of the meeting or the death or incapacity of one or both of the participatns) the question shall resolve negatively.

If the meeting is brought forward, this question shall close retroactively one day before the meeting is scheduled to be held.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.