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1
25 forecasters
2
1 comment
25 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?

Resolved:No
25 forecasters
if yes
if no

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

48%
48%
Resolved:Annulled

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

39%
39%
Resolved:No
if Yes48%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
11 comments240 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.4%
Pete Buttigieg7.4%
Other43.5%
4 others
13 comments103 forecasters

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

20%chance
5 comments50 forecasters

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party59.9%
Republican Party40%
Other0.1%
15 comments42 forecasters

Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?

7%chance
0 comments103 forecasters

Losing US presidential candidate not conceding in these elections?

2021-2022Annulled
2023-2024result: No
2025-2026Annulled
2027-202842%
7 comments24 forecasters

Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?

13%chance
5 comments25 forecasters

US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028

1%chance