Question
What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?
Resolved :2.2Total Forecasters113
Community Prediction
1.9
(1.49 - 2.2)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.5 | 1.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.487 | — |
| median | 1.896 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.202 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5 | 1.0% | — |
What was the final result?2.2
Community Baseline Score
69.3
Community Peer Score
47.1
Authors:
Opened:Jul 8, 2024
Closes:Jul 14, 2024
Resolves:Jul 17, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 10, 2024
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 8, 2024
Closes:Jul 14, 2024
Resolves:Jul 17, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 10, 2024
