Question

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

58 comments58

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

(4.2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 9, 2024

Closes:

Jul 10, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 10, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Live updates: Trump attends NATO summit; Andrew Cuomo concedes NYC mayoral primary election

NBC•Jun 25, 2025

Strikes on Iran showed the need for stealthy submarines that can launch a whole lot of missiles. The US Navy is about to lose that.

Business Insider•Jun 24, 2025

Aukus vital to ‘deter Chinese aggression’, say US lawmakers, as Trump urged to recommit to submarine deal

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

May 2040

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 9, 2024

Closes:

Jul 10, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 10, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Live updates: Trump attends NATO summit; Andrew Cuomo concedes NYC mayoral primary election

NBC•Jun 25, 2025

Strikes on Iran showed the need for stealthy submarines that can launch a whole lot of missiles. The US Navy is about to lose that.

Business Insider•Jun 24, 2025

Aukus vital to ‘deter Chinese aggression’, say US lawmakers, as Trump urged to recommit to submarine deal

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

May 2040

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%