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Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: what will the Metaculus community predict about Brexit?

Question

Like our previous metaknowledge experiment, in this question we ask not (directly) whether Brexit will succeed (which we asked in Part A, but what you think other people think.

Here, your goal is to "predict" what the Metaculus community prediction is right now as to whether Brexit will succeed. Just dial in the percentage that you think is what other people think. We've hidden the community prediction for both parts A and B until question close.

This question will close at the same time as part A; it will help the experiment if you make a prediction in both questions.

(While the scoring of Part A is as usual, the scoring method for this question is to-be-determined.)

Categories:
Politics

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.