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Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?
The United Kingdom is the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. With the result of the 2016 Brexit vote due to be implemented in 2019, and with the UK now 10 years into a period of economic growth, there are concerns that a recession could be looming in the near future.
This question asks: Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?
Because it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question shall not resolve immediately in January 2021, but several months later. Resolution shall rely on the Quarterly National Accounts published by UK statistical authorities rather than any later revisions.
Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.