forecasting quantitative forecasts calculating contingent wisdom delivering quantitative wisdom delivering accurate wisdom calculating definitive wisdom mapping the future computing probable forecasts modeling critical forecasts delivering probable wisdom calculating definitive contingencies modeling calibrated understanding delivering definitive forecasts composing predictive futures delivering precise futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?

The United Kingdom is the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. With the result of the 2016 Brexit vote due to be implemented in 2019, and with the UK now 10 years into a period of economic growth, there are concerns that a recession could be looming in the near future.

This question asks: Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?

Because it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question shall not resolve immediately in January 2021, but several months later. Resolution shall rely on the Quarterly National Accounts published by UK statistical authorities rather than any later revisions.

Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.