Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?


The United Kingdom is the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. With the result of the 2016 Brexit vote due to be implemented in 2019, and with the UK now 10 years into a period of economic growth, there are concerns that a recession could be looming in the near future.

This question asks: Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?

Because it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question shall not resolve immediately in January 2021, but several months later. Resolution shall rely on the Quarterly National Accounts published by UK statistical authorities rather than any later revisions.

Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.


Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.