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Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?

A follow-up to this question.

As of the close of trading on 30 January 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 25,014.86.

The DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.

This question asks: Will the DJIA hit 30,000 before it next touches 20,000?

Resolves positively if the DJIA ever reaches an intraday level above 30,000 before reaching an intraday level of 20,000; resolves negatively if the inverse is true; and resolves ambiguously if (before either condition is met) the DJIA is discontinued or altered to such an extent that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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