🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

Group

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

14 comments14

16 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Alaska

Iowa

Ohio

Texas

Florida

Arizona

Make a Prediction

State/district	resolution
Ohio	11.1
Iowa	13.2
North Carolina	3.3
Arizona	5.5
Wisconsin	0.8
Pennsylvania	1.8
New York	-11.7
Maine (statewide)	-6.6
Virginia	-5.7
Georgia	2.2
New Hampshire	-2.8
Minnesota	-4.2
Nevada	3.1
Michigan	1.5
Alaska	13.1
Florida	13.1
Texas	13.8
Oregon	-14.3
Delaware	-14.7
Washington (state)	-18.2
Colorado	-11
New Jersey	-5.9
New Mexico	-6.1
Illinois	-10.9
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district	-4.6