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Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?
The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country, and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.
Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?
Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.
Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.