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Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?

The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country, and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.

Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?

Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.

Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.


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