12 comments
75 forecasters
Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2021
Closes:Nov 1, 2021
Resolved:Dec 31, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 3, 2021
Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?
73% chance
51
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
410
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
129