Question

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
7%
(3.4% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
0.0
Community Peer Score
0.0
Opened:Jul 12, 2024
Closes:Jul 13, 2024
Resolves:Oct 2, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 13, 2024
Include Bots:Yes