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Will the US government shut down on February 16th?

The recent 35-day government shut down was ended with a 3-week temporary funding bill. the funding lasts through February 15th; if a shutdown occurs, it will begin on the 16th.

Will that shutdown occur?

The question resolves positively if there is some lapse of funding for some federal departments and services on February 16th. Negative resolution occurs if a funding bill is approved by the president and both chambers of congress, with a retroactive closing date 24 hours prior.

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.