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Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?
Frédérique Martel's new book is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.
Question: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?
Resolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.