Question

Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?

Resolved:Annulled

54 comments54

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

36%

(18% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 36%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Jul 17, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 3, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 17, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 16, 2024

Closes:

Jul 17, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 3, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 17, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Zonal pricing is dead. Now Miliband should be less absolutist on his 2030 goals | Nils Pratley

Guardian•Jul 11, 2025

Energy bills to rise because of delays to Labour’s plan to slash prices

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Drilling Plummets Under Trump Despite 'Drill, Baby, Drill' Promise

Newsweek•Jul 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?

58.8%

Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

59%