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93 comments
145 forecasters

If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?

community
6.77
result
2
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:Feb 20, 2019
Closes:Sep 19, 2020
Resolved:Jul 19, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2019
Economy & Business
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
A top economist says there's an 'uncomfortably high' chance that the US is heading into a recession in the next year
Business Insider•Sep 15, 2025
Daily Mail logo
US in 'labor recession' as shock new figures reveal downturn
Daily Mail•Sep 9, 2025
Daily Mail logo
Warning one third of the US economy is ALREADY in recession… here are the next states to fall
Daily Mail•Sep 6, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

2024
1%
2025
42%
2026
32%
3 others
93 forecasters

Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?

22% chance
47

What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?

0.424
(0.215 - 0.929)
0.424
(0.215 - 0.929)
59 forecasters
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