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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have, like many effective altruists before them, made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2019 forecasts is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms, and we at Metaculus of course support their endeavor. Now, if we can just encourage the other media outlets to follow suit, "the discourse" will be saved.

With Future Perfect's blessing, we've taken a subset of their 2019 predictions and tweaked them, minimally, for Metaculus user consumption. In some cases we've also linked to any relevant existing Metaculus questions.

With your help, we can make 2019 the most shrewdly predicted year ever.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

The things that would have to happen for the UK to backtrack on Brexit before its planned departure from the EU on March 29 seem, on their own, quite unlikely to me, and less likely when put together. Option 1 is that Theresa May calls a new referendum (Updated PredictIt price: 8 cents) and then “Remain” wins, which polling suggests is possible, though the margins are close. Option 2 is that the Conservatives’ Democratic Unionist Party partners break from the coalition, forcing a new election (Updated PredictIt Price: 4 cents), Jeremy Corbyn and Labour win (it’s tight), and they either cancel Brexit unilaterally or call a new referendum. Corbyn publicly pretended to support Remain during the referendum, but I think it’s pretty obvious he wants to leave the EU, and in any case, he’ll never go that far out on a limb to prevent Brexit from happening. —DM

Future Perfect's prediction: 80%

The question resolves positive if

  1. The UK leaves with an withdrawal agreement with a transitional period (during which time the UK and EU continues to operate under Single Market rules) ending in or before 2025.
  2. The UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement (i.e. a "no-deal" Brexit occurs)

(clarification, March 2, 2019) positive resolution need not require ratification of the terms of UK's exit, and therefore a "no-deal" counts toward a positive resolution. Moreover, the UK leaving with a withdrawal agreement also counts toward a positive resolution, provided the transitional period ends by the end of 2025.

Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q2. US homicides will decline

Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain

Related Non-Series Questions:

Will the UK actually leave the EU?

Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?

The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?

Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?

Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?


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