Question

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Resolved:Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction

70%

(64% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Feb 26, 2019

Closes:

Jul 1, 2019

Resolves:

Feb 3, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 27, 2019

Future Perfect 2019 Series

2019 Leaderboard

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

25%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Nov 2042