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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018
Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
My intuitions about questions like these are often surprisingly off. I intuitively consider the question, Is this trending upward or downward? But that’s far from the only thing that matters when predicting whether this year’s temperatures will be higher than last year’s. It’s also important to have a sense of how noisy the trend is. I looked at this data from NASA to see how I would have done making this prediction every year from 2002 to the present. I’d have been right 10 times and wrong six times.
My understanding is that if you have a clear understanding of El Niño and La Niña, and how they affect global temperature patterns, you can do better than that — but I don’t and I can’t. I give it a 60 percent chance that this year will be warmer than 2018. I’m much more confident that it’ll be among the five warmest years on record — all of the past few years have been —KP.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%
The question resolves positive if the average world temperature change according to NASA shows an increase in 2019 relative to 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Related Non-Series Questions:
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.