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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018


Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

My intuitions about questions like these are often surprisingly off. I intuitively consider the question, Is this trending upward or downward? But that’s far from the only thing that matters when predicting whether this year’s temperatures will be higher than last year’s. It’s also important to have a sense of how noisy the trend is. I looked at this data from NASA to see how I would have done making this prediction every year from 2002 to the present. I’d have been right 10 times and wrong six times.

My understanding is that if you have a clear understanding of El Niño and La Niña, and how they affect global temperature patterns, you can do better than that — but I don’t and I can’t. I give it a 60 percent chance that this year will be warmer than 2018. I’m much more confident that it’ll be among the five warmest years on record — all of the past few years have been —KP.

Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**

The question resolves positive if the average world temperature change according to NASA shows an increase in 2019 relative to 2018

Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Q2. US homicides will decline

Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain

Related Non-Series Questions:

What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?

What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?

Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?

How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?

How much global warming by 2100?

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