Question

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

Resolved:No

28 comments28

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction

18%

(10% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

63.6

Community Peer Score

23.9

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Mar 17, 2019

Closes:

Dec 23, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 4, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 17, 2019

Economy & Business

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Analysis-Why Tesla's robotaxi launch was the easy part

•Jun 24, 2025

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Tesla Misses Robotaxi Launch Date, Goes With Safety Drivers

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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%

How many non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030?

782k

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

10%

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Mar 17, 2019

Closes:

Dec 23, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 4, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 17, 2019

Economy & Business

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Analysis-Why Tesla's robotaxi launch was the easy part

•Jun 24, 2025

Get out the Waymo! Tesla robotaxis hit Austin’s streets

•Jun 24, 2025

Tesla Misses Robotaxi Launch Date, Goes With Safety Drivers

Forbes•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%

How many non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030?

782k

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

10%